This is a question I already had in my mind when I read the Hyper book and it came back to me when reading the latest Tame Your Work Flow.
The following Beta probability distribution is used in both books to illustrate the probability of projects duration:
Where is this distribution coming from? Is it a mental model or is it indeed factual?
As a side note, when I collected flow time data from one team few months ago and plotted the values in a histogram I was surprised to see the distribution did indeed match roughly the one above. So I’m really curious to find more about it.
Thanks in advance,