Kahnemen on "Noise": "noise reduction", it's a new field

“Many of the errors that we make originate not in bias, but in noise.”
“There is a lot of literature, which is not well known in the business world, on how unreliable professional judgement is.”
“There is little or no evidence that when it comes to making decisions, expert judgements do better than intelligently constructed rules and formulas.”
Talking about an organization: we asked them what variabililty in professional judgement they expected, they said 5 to 10 percent (which is what everyone says), in reality it was 40 to 60 percent…a huge financial organization with a huge abount of “noise” in its professional’s judgements…and they are completely unaware of it.
The first thing is, if possible, apply an algorythm. If that is not possible then train people to make their judgments in a disciplined, regular way.
-------sounds like TameFlow to me

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